Prediction Time!
While I won’t make a futile public endorsement, I will make predictions. Those are more fun!
President/Vice President – Too Close to Call
I think either Swamp or Unite will win a close victory, probably somewhere around 52% or 53%. If I had to put money down, I would have said Unite had an edge, until news of Jared’s SigEp-related arrest came out. Now, plus given that non-System victories occur once in a generation, I’m not so sure which way it’s going to go.
The key is turnout. The higher the turnout, the better for Unite. I say this because while they haven’t been mobilizing Independents (or so-called GDIs) as much as they could, they have done more than Swamp has in mobilizing nontraditional voters.
Treasurer – Runoff
No big shock there. But because Swamp/Unite are headed for a photo-finish at the top of the ticket, I seriously doubt Susan Henriques can use the Progress party and the Alligator to win more than she got last time (17%).
In fact, I suspect that Ryan will win about 45%, Lola 40%, and Susan 15%. In the runoff, all bets are off.
Senate – Swamp Majority
Unless athletes motivate a lot more voters than they have in the past, I think the edge for a Senate majority belongs to Swamp, particularly because they are likely to win the Freshman/Sophomore seats easily.
I think Unite will at least half of Agriculture, both Engineering seats, the LS Slate, and a handful of others, including possible a split in the Graduate slate. If they are start winning more than that (like a sweep of Grad students), then you know they have a decent shot at winning the Presidency.
If I have time, I’ll give a more detailed breakdown of Senate predictions, as far as specific seats go. But until then, those are the broad guesses.
Voter defection will be high among GDI’s b/c of the swamp exec ticket.
I think you over-estimate how much GDIs will vote for a non-Greek. These people are God-Damn-Independents not because they are anti-greek, but because they are anti-System. Like it or not, Swamp is the Greek/System party, and not too many GDIs will vote for them.
(And even when Chris Carmody ran – the last nonGreek to win substantial greek support – many if not most GDIs didn’t vote for him.)
But either way, it’ll be a close race.
Maybe i’m off b/c of progress 05 but the highly mobilized GDI’s for campaigns were usually honors kids. Boyles w/ SHO will hurt them there (plus they are running Nelson a popular RA and Joel a SHO exec). We’ll see wednesday.
Hey Ken, my athiest friend, you may find this topic a bit uncomfortable.
I feel it is very interesting, as I have read on facebook people leaving awesome messages of encouragement to Lydia saying “i am praying for you.” I also know a number of Unite people who are Born-Again Christians, like Galen Wood, who are praying for a Unite victory. Its kind of like the Civil War, where both sides prayed to the same God for victory.
Now I know Lydia is a sister Christian so she knows the score., John, while he may be a member of a group which thinks i am going to hell even though i am born-again because i was not water baptized in his church, is a very spiritual guy nonetheless. God is in control, he knows who will win these elections (all levels of government), see Romans. And as we pray, instead of praying whether you win or lose, i say lets pray that His will be done.
I’m not an athiest, James, my sister is. I just don’t have a religious side of me, whether or not I believe.
But you make a good point – a partisan victory isn’t as important as seeing a result that is good for the University.
I feel compelled to respond to what Christian Duque wrote about me in his blog. Now in the past I have referred to Christian Duque as “another blogger” because I didn’t want any negative attention drawn on him for his comments, such as the constant mentioning of me even though i am no longer at UF and most people there have no idea who I am anymore
In the past couple of days on his blog, Christian has referred to me as “castrated” and as a “homo.” (Certainly i hope neither is true for the sake of my future wife). He also also potrayed me a stalker. He has also made fun of my facebooking. Like its cool because we know its Christian, and he goes over the top, although i disagree with his word choice to express his points sometimes (using the word “homo” is not the most appropriate thing to say especially with many LGBTQ members of our society).
However to my old friend Christian i say, don’t take any of this personal. This is just UF student politics we are commenting about. We are giving our thoughts on how the UF kids do their elections. And there is no need for name calling. Your still my friend no matter what you may write Christian, and I hope to be yours no matter what i may write.
I was commenting on Ken Kern’s blog about the UF student politics and my opinions. I have known Ken kerns since i was a freshmen back in spring of 2001, so i feel i can post on his blog, as opposed to posting on the blogs of people I really have no tie to and who are current students. I feel that your blog is read by more UF students Christian so i try not to post on there. I am a law student in tallahassee but i love to keep up with the Alligator and all these kids who do the blogs. I am not an expert on the current UF political scene, nor would i want to be, I am at a diffent school. I am just a guy who did UF SG for four years, and then did FSU SGA for a little while as our student body attorney general. I was just giving my thoughts and my opinions. You may disagree with them but that is cool!
However UF SG is over for me, like i love talking to all my old friends at UF like Jared and fernando and getting the political low down, just as i have several friends who also do the same. But its these kids SG. Yes I may have a preference for who should win, but they aren’t my student body officers (although they are my brother’s student body officers as he is still at UF). Yes while I may feel bad for my friends at UF if they don’t win, still its not my SG.
If John wins, then congrats to john, he achieved something as the first nongreek on the greek ticket to win since McGovern back in 1998 (although I personally don’t like how he did it). If Jared wins, then i am happy for my old friend for replicating the winning formula, and doing it without the majority of the greeks or african americans.
Also the Access Party ended 2 years ago. I love remanecing about it with my old UF friends as much as the next guy, but we have to move on with our lives!We can’t let that one great memory from college hold us hostage in all we do the rest of our lives and how we approach people or view politics. Christian i just hope you are able to find some peace about your time with UF SG. I don’t want to see somebody just consumed with vitrolic bitterness that it tears them apart.
Unite has dominated every single location today.They may win.
What happened to being humble?