Early Voting vs. Exit Polls
There is a lot of talk in this weekend before the election about the long lines and high turnout for early voting. Some polls show the early voters are skewing Democratic.
Such as saying they voted 54-41 for Obama among early voters, but among all voters he’s ahead by “just” 52-42. So one can surmise that, if the early voters really are skewed as compared to the overall population (as opposed to early clues about the actual results), then doesn’t that suggest that the universe of Election Day voters is going to skew more heavily for McCain and the GOP than the overall vote count will?
And don’t they create exit polls from interviews conducted as people leave the polls on Election Day?
So aren’t we saying that the exit polls will be useless as they skew toward McCain more than they should? Wouldn’t that lead people to not calling some states when they should, and calling others than will need to be withdrawn?
I haven’t heard any of the number crunchers mention this in the MSM or in the blogs, so I thought I’d put this out there. And I sure hope the networks have accounted for this and won’t call a race or state without actual votes counted.