Another Day, Another Slate Filled
I’ve really got my SG blogging mojo going on. I apologize to the non-SG readers of this blog. Life will return to normal in March.
Now, remember the major caveat that I’m 800 miles and 7 years removed from this election scene, so I may not have the whole story. Feel free to argue or fill in the details in the comments; I only moderate comments to exclude spam.
1) Is anyone else bothered that the party of “Progress” is the only one without any sort of web presence beyond Facebook? Check out their website (linked on my blogroll to the right) – you won’t find it, even though they link to it from their Facebook group.
2) Is anyone going to call Unite out on their “a positive new direction” b.s.? I mean, really? They pick the current Senate President for Student Body President, and a Senate slate filled with current senators or losing senate candidates from the last election, and are backed by the same leadership honorary whose endorsed candidates win nearly every time and expect us to believe they’ve got a new direction?
3) Speaking of Unite, a valued and anonymous source tells me that much of Unite’s slate is not just repeat candidates from previous elections but nearly exclusive Greek. Not unexpected, but having “gone to the base” is not a winning strategy but a defensive one. Unite may still win this, but the Exec’s will need a runoff, and they’ll only win Senate because of the indie split.
4) Speaking of the indie split, the only really impressive slate of candidates with Progress are the graduate students. They may just win that district in this election, which will ensure their party survives this election. But grad students don’t vote. High turnout for that district is 600 votes. They better have some stronger candidates elsewhere on the ballot that aren’t yet booted off the ballot (CLAS being filled with the likes of the presidential candidate’s girlfriend is not confidence-inspiring). And they better not be banking on Grad Students alone delivering an SG election. We all remember what happened to Innovate in 2004.
5) Orange and Blue is off to a decent start with its slate – a strong Engineering ticket and some big indie names for Law and CLAS. Definitely the three most critical colleges in any spring election for the indie side. Their biggest mistake last year was having a very weak and partial Senate slate, which cost them votes for their exec in places like Freshmen and Sophomores; they did a better job filling the list this time around. They need to keep Unite’s vote totals as closest to theirs as possible, which is the real challenge given Progress (but having Keg on the ballot should help on the opposite side of the ledger).
5) Lastly, ballot order. It is an often-over-hyped element of the election. Getting top billing helps in tight races, and being dead last (looking at you Progress) will no doubt hinder in districts with a long list of choices. But don’t stress about it – like the Alligator’s endorsement when it’s not on the warpath, it only matters at the margins. And if either Unite or Progress are worried about the margins, then Unite’s doing horribly, Progress is probably winning more Senate seats than expected, and the exec is definitely headed to a runoff.
Ken, I like you, but you’re stuck in the same defeatist insular mindset that has doomed campaigns (some that I’ve given my blood, sweat, tears, and way too much of my GPA for) for years.
First of all, “big indie name” is a gigantic oxymoron. There is no such thing as the “independent bloc” of voters, who will come out in droves only if you appease them by being “indie” enough. Anyone who cares enough to follow SG is involved in SG. Especially now, during campaign season. No one is going to vote for Niederriter, or Hargrove, or Trimboli, or Jardon, because they recognize the names. No one knows who these kids are.
Also, when’s the last time a grad student was on an executive ticket? And I’m not talking about Jared Hernandez in law school – I’m talking about a legitimate Ph.D. candidate. Not only an actual grad student, but one heavily involved in GSC and GAU. That our grad slate is going to win isn’t in question – it’s just a matter of how embarrassing it’s going to be for Matt Michel and his cohorts. Also, Nina is way more than our next SBP’s girlfriend. She worked her ass off for O&B last semester, has substantial organizational support, and is incredibly intelligent and inspirational to boot. Also, I know you’re a liberal and all, but that’s a pretty awful double standard – to call us out for having Nina on the ticket when practically everyone on O&B’s exec who isn’t already in Senate is running themselves. I’m not even going to start on how awesome the rest of our CLAS slate is, simply because I’ll be here all night.
Our website will be up by the time you read this.
1) Name recognition is important – otherwise Unite wouldn’t be re-running candidates from Spring and Fall’s Gator Party slates. It’s also why organizational leaders are put on the slate – not just for the organization’s support, but because they are likely better known than some random friends of the presidential candidate.
2) Sheema Freeman’s Grad School ties were overhyped when she was the Treasurer candidate for Innovate – a campaign did mention in this post as having relied on the grad school voting bloc. Graduate Students have never – not once in the last decade – given more than 600 votes to Student Government. (Except I don’t have the breakdown for 2004 and 2005, I’ll admit). Even if you can double or triple that with a kickass turnout machine, there’s no guarantee they’ll all vote for the GSC candidates – GSC is not as plugged in to the grad student population as any of the larger college councils are, although it is a go-to resource for travel grants.
3) I’ve seen stranger things happen, Josh, than a girlfriend turning out to be a decent candidate. I also know that CLAS has been more receptive than the campus to the opposition, and has a decent track record in backing the larger third parties. So maybe your group will surprise. But the historic trends in SG are pretty steady and I’m just not convinced yet.
4) That’ll be great. If your logo is any indication, your website should look very nice when it’s finally up and running.
Your accounts of Unite’s slate is very big generalization. There’s actually only about 7 or 8 that are returners. And I don’t understand how you can call out Unite for bringing in returners yet say O&B’s is “strong” for doing the same damn thing? Not to mention that it’s not even close to exclusively Greek.
And Josh is kidding himself if he thinks Nina is on the ticket because of other reasons than dating Ben Dictor. Hell, he’s the only reason she got involved with O&B, where the hell is her organizational support?
1) Some of the returners on the Unite slate are people who have already lost to O&B, which suggests they are not strong campaigners. On the other side, O&B needs returners in areas where they can win, but need an extra edge like being well known. I know it’s not the most consistent argument, but Unite needs to keep its base but not sacrifice it with weak candidates – whereas O&B at this point needs to be sure Progress doesn’t outshine them.
2) From what I gather, a lot of the Progress slate is weak on organizational support, except in the Graduate Students. We’ll see if dating the presidential candidate gets her a seat she may not even want.
Only 1 returning person that I can recall actually lost, and that was Naadira, and that was probably the most surprising defeat in the entire election. I think she lost by 3 votes?
2) Is anyone going to call Unite out on their “a positive new direction” b.s.? …………..
Mr. Kerns I would have to say that the Orange and Blue party can not call out the Unite party on their “’a positive new direction’ b.s.” as you put it, with their selection of White, a Greek candidate and a member of the Gator/Unite party until his failed bid for their treasurer spot.
3) Speaking of Unite, a valued and anonymous source tells me that much of Unite’s slate is not just repeat candidates from previous elections but nearly exclusive Greek. Not unexpected, but having “gone to the base”……………….
On the “going to the base,” point, in an election with not one, not two, but three independent parties it is pretty hard for the traditional greek ticket to pick up GDI candidates. They have had GDI candidates in the past and until recently have had a pretty decent relationship with moderate GDI’s like IRHA and others.
I don’t think O&B is hypocritical for expanding their coalition with a Greek like White. On the contrary, when Unite “goes to the base” with its Greek slate and picks the incumbent Senate President as their presidential candidate, it is pretty ballsy to campaign for “a positive new direction” when not even their platform ideas reflect that goal. Gator/Unite would have been better off with either a different slogan or a different more out-of-the-box slate – the two together just look silly.
You have a fair point that 2 independent parties makes it harder to pick off pieces of the indie coalition (as it’s all tapped out). But I would remind you that the non-Greek SG tradition has three distinct flavors – radical, mainstream, and FBK-friendly. The radical side is appropriately seen as GDI (as in “god-damn independents”). The phrase “moderate GDI” is nonsensical. I understand what you mean though.
Fortunately for Unite, even without the “moderate GDI” votes, they can still count on about 40%, likely more, on the first ballot. Anything less would be a sign of weakness. So their base will likely see them through to the runoff for the exec. The real question is whether Progress can deliver on its bold promise of an army of graduate student votes – and even then I doubt they can do better than play kingmaker in the aforementioned runoff election.