The Benefit of SG Hindsight
Tonight will see another terrible result for the independent movement at the University of Florida – as virtually all fall elections are. We average 31% of the vote in fall compared to 41% in the spring. And that’s without a split in the indie movement, as 2009 has seen.
Still, with hindsight from my own experiences, there’s a few tidbits of interesting news this week. (And no, none of them is that the Alligator backed Unite-Lite because of its moderate/realistic platform.)
1) The well-worn path of understating campaign finances remains in full effect. Each side does it. Now, it’s possible these numbers are accurate – I don’t know if anyone is paying for newspaper ads or anything big on the ground like that. But I have a hard time believing even Unite is spending less than $5,000 ($3k alone on t-shirts, then stickers, and glossy flyers – they all add up). And I certainly don’t believe the highest contribution to their coffers really is $125. Likewise, Progress and O&B clearly have comparable expenses. If my own Voice Party could spend $2000 on a meager campaign eight years ago, someone or all of them are fibbing about their expenses.
2) Of course, expense reports are nothing compared to the actual rap sheets some of the SG candidates and officials have racked up in Alachua County alone. The numbers are staggering, embarassing, and yet totally believable, too. And critics of the TV show “Greek” thought the prevalance of alcohol was unrealistic – sure it is, because there’s apparently not enough marijuana and public arrests of the Greeks.
3) High turnout from 2008 seems to be repeating itself somewhat in 2009, although I wouldn’t expect a repeat record high. Still, 5000 voters on day one isn’t a bad result. Maybe the indie parties will eke out a win or two. I won’t hold my breath, though, even for Unite-Lite, I mean Progress.
4) Lastly, Matthew Clark makes a good case for the virtue of the independent movement, although his examples of Unite Party campaigning are, alas, all-too-familiar.
Still, I bet one could write a television show that is just as full of drama about UF’s system of elections that is far superior to the soap opera stylings of the popular “Greek” show. After all, as some of us are so fond of pointing out, parties at Greek houses and love interests are not what define the college experience or even all the drama at college – it may not even define most of the drama found in the Greek system.
No surprise on the results: Unite 43, O&B 2 (Ossip/Yanuck), Progress 1 (Family Housing – Schneider loses his seat). As I commented on the Alligator website:
” Duverger’s Law strikes again: Progress-O&B split + plurality elections = vote split = massive drubbing.
For all the spin, it’s back to the drawing board for the two indie parties. For Progress, only one seat and no re-election for the party leader; for O&B, the last remnants of their year of strong performances (spring/fall ’08) are all but wiped out, and (correct me if I’m wrong) they might not have enough Senators to have a seat at the R&A table. Oh, and let’s not forget that Unite got Hume (Ben Cavataro’s old seat), usually an independent bastion.
Basic electoral strategy (short of a change in the electoral system – not going to happen) would tell Progress and O&B to merge into a united force. Then again, basic electoral strategy can’t fix the remaining bad blood of the Dictor-Miorelli feud all by itself. Someone (Schneider? Ossip? Another big name?) is going to have to swallow their pride and pick up the telephone. Until that happens, we’ll see more nights like tonight and last spring, instead of the spring/fall ’08-type results the indies are capable of. “
As I said last spring, the smartest thing to do for the two camps next Spring would be to let one side pick the President, the other pick Treasurer, and they both agree on a VP and split the Senate.
Their combined votes are about as good – if not better – than the historic average for the indies. It makes no sense to let ego get in the way of things when there’s enough in SG to run for to run a combined party that has two internal wings. The FBK-backed party does this all the time.
And let’s face it – the odds are extremely long that any Independent will win Exec, so there really isn’t much of an ego boost to say you lost a SG presidential race. I cannot understand the draw of those races that caused such a permanent split. Even the indie division in Spring 2000 was quickly healed before the fall election.
*shrug*