Senate Projections Updated

U.S. Senate 2008
Democrats – 53
Republicans – 42
Independents – 2
Tossup – 3

REPUBLICANS NOT UP FOR RE-ELECTION (26)

SAFE REPUBLICAN (6)
Ala. (Sessions), Tenn. (Alexander), MS-A (Cochran), S.C. (Graham), WY-A (Enzi), WY-B (Barasso)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN (4)
Ga. (Chambliss), Kan. (Roberts), Neb. (Hagel), Ok. (Inhofe)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (6)
Idaho (Craig), Ky. (McConnell), Minn. (Coleman), Maine (Collins), N.C. (Dole), Texas (Cornyn)

TOSSUP (3)
La. (Landrieu), MS-B (Wicker), Ore. (Smith)

LEAN DEMOCRAT (3)
Alaska (Begich), Col. (Udall), N.H. (Shaheen)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT (2)
N.J. (Lautenberg), N.M. (Udall)

SAFE DEMOCRAT (11)
Ark. (Pryor), Del. (Biden), Iowa (Harkin), Ill. (Durbin), Mass. (Kerry), Mich. (Levin), Mont. (Baucus), R.I. (Reed), S.D. (Johnson), Va. (Warner), W.Va. (Rockefeller)

DEMOCRATS NOT UP FOR RE-ELECTION (37)

INDEPENDENTS NOT UP FOR RE-ELECTION (2)

Louisiana drops into “tossup” based on my metric. The latest polls justify my ranking of Alaska as “Lean Democratic”. Idaho and Texas show themselves to be more vulnerable in the latest polls, hence the Lean category. Georgia also moved up the ranks (but not the categories) with the nomination of Jim Martin on the Dem side (who does better in the polls); Chambliss has a huge cash advantage though, and remains the favorite.

Also of note, under my metric, Colorado and Minnesota are teetering on the edge of “tossup” and could easily slip into that category if another poll comes out showing the race tightening.

Overall, I project 55 D+I, 42R, and 3 tossups.