In one breath, liberal bloggers are happy about their party’s first victory since the 2000 Senate gains. In the next breath, looking back at the bad news, the President’s low approval numbers (35%-37%), and the Democrats’ huge lead in the congressional ballot numbers (17 point lead right now), those same bloggers are talking about a major realignment.
The idea is that the independent voters are so turned off by Bush and Company, and even some Republicans are pissed, that the country may see a new Democratic majority in both houses of Congress after 2006, much like the 1994, 1980, or 1974 elections saw big gains for the president’s opposition party.
I’m not buying it – for the most part.
I have noticed the big shift in the outer suburbs of Virginia, and New Jersey’s wider-than-expected victory margin, and the noticeable gains on the local level in Pennsylvania. And then I hear whispers that the Democrats may be targeting Maine for the Senate elections, a state previously ignored by the DSCC.
So, I’d like to think that a partial realignment is possible. That the Democratic advantage in the Northeast on the presidential level may finally be trickling down to lower races, governor and Congress. So, if I were a Republican in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, etc., I’d be worried.
If there really is a tidal wave forming, the Yankee Republicans should be the first to fall. They are Hastert’s canary in the mine.