Projection Change: South Dakota (EC)

There is a new poll out yesterday which placed the POTUS race in South Dakota as a statistical tie, 47-43 for McCain. This is a state that gave 60% of its votes, twice, for President Bush. Like it’s cousin to the north, this state simply should not be in play if the national tracking polls showing a tight race is to be believed.

I still don’t think South Dakota will ultimately be in play. I think Obama’s best chance for a red Western state (as opposed to the purple ones like Colorado) remains Montana, followed by either North Dakota or Alaska.

However, on the basis of this poll and its similarity to results in other states of the region, I cannot completely rule out an upset by Obama at this juncture.

Accordingly, I am moving South Dakota from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican”. Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska all are categorized as “Lean Republican” and will remain that way for now. Overall map remains unchanged: O 256, M 205.