Brutal Senate Ratings
U.S. Senate 2008
Democrats – 54
Republicans – 44
Independents – 2
Tossup – 0
REPUBLICANS NOT UP FOR RE-ELECTION (26)
SAFE REPUBLICAN (6)
Ala. (Sessions), Tenn. (Alexander), MS-A (Cochran), S.C. (Graham), WY-A (Enzi), WY-B (Barasso)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN (7)
Ga. (Chambliss), Idaho (Craig), Kan. (Roberts), Ky. (McConnell), Neb. (Hagel), Ok. (Inhofe), Texas (Cornyn)
LEAN REPUBLICAN (5)
Maine (Collins), Minn. (Coleman), MS-B (Wicker), N.C. (Dole), Ore. (Smith)
LEAN DEMOCRAT (3)
Alaska (Begich), Col. (Udall), N.H. (Shaheen)
LIKELY DEMOCRAT (1)
SAFE DEMOCRAT (13)
Ark. (Pryor), Del. (Biden), Iowa (Harkin), Ill. (Durbin), Mass. (Kerry), Mich. (Levin), Mont. (Baucus), N.J. (Lautenberg), N.M. (Udall), R.I. (Reed), S.D. (Johnson), Va. (Warner), W.Va. (Rockefeller)
DEMOCRATS NOT UP FOR RE-ELECTION (37)
INDEPENDENTS NOT UP FOR RE-ELECTION (2)
I should note a change in methodology here. I’m pushing races a bit harder into “lean” and “safe” categories now, to reflect the fact that there are just 2 months left before Election Day, and there’s less of an opportunity to shift the dynamics of a race.
More polls will be released in the coming week or so, and I may update it then. But enough changes were made in the ratings, and with my change to pushing races into respective categories, I figured I should do this now and update the ratings again later.
Alaska, North Carolina, and Minnesota all are close to the “tossup” category, and would be tossups in the old methodology. New Hampshire, Colorado, and Oregon are on the outer edge of the old “tossup” category but more distinctly lean to their respective parties under the new methodology. These are the six races where most of the attention will go, especially under a GOP “firewall” strategy. If a sweep is building, I’d also watch out for Mississippi and Maine, but I don’t see those coming into play just yet. I’d also like to see an upset for Andrew Rice or even Scott Klebb, but they’re fighting an uphill battle. Georgia’s also polling kinda close, but Jim Martin is underfunded, and Obama might not compete heavily there, so its potential to move is limited.
So there you have it. If I had to place money on it, I’d say the Dems will win 54, the GOP 44, Bernie Sanders will side with the Dems, and Lieberman may switch to the GOP despite it meaning a move from the clear majority to the clear minority side (which very rarely ever happens in a party switch).