SG Voting Next Week

The UF Student Government elections are next week. We will know on Thursday who won. Likely result is a run-off between Unite and O&B, with Unite taking a Senate majority and Progress possibly getting a couple of seats (in Grad).

PREDICTION VIA HISTORICAL AVERAGE
If we averaged the results of the most recent elections for which I have kept data (which omits the 2003 Ignite landslide and the 2004 Access victory), it actually results in a quite plausible outcome:
Unite – 46%
O&B – 33%
Progress – 14%
Keg – 7%

MY OWN PREDICTION
I, for one, am not quite so sure O&B can do that well compared to Progress. Nor am I sure a Greek-heavy slate can keep Unite stay in the high 40s if turnout sets a new record (which seems possible given the very high results from the fall). Instead, something more like this would not surprise me at all:
Unite at 43%
O&B 27%
Progress 20%
Keg 10%
And there are some on Duque’s blog who are confident Brandon White, O&B’s treasurer candidate and the most experience guy running, could pull enough cross over votes to make it closer.

We’ll see which is closer to the truth – my gut prediction or the historical average – or whether we’re looking at a repeat of 2005.

A lot of it will depend on whether the rhetoric by the Progress Party is backed up with votes, and whether O&B can learn the lessons of the past by shoring up their support where they were unexpectedly weak in 2008. Very little will turn on the Alligator’s endorsement, especially because their opinion page often times tries to be sensible and balanced in their endorsement, instead of trying to stir up support for their chosen candidate (or trashing the main opponent).

The other wildcard, which I pretty much debunked in a previous post, is whether higher turnout automatically means good things for the indie parties.

I am not convinced that 2009 was going to be a historic year for the indie movement, and Ben Dictor’s 3rd party bid virtually guarantees a repeat of the usual pattern. But that doesn’t mean next week can’t be an interesting week for SG political junkies.