While I won’t make a futile public endorsement, I will make predictions. Those are more fun!
President/Vice President – Too Close to Call
I think either Swamp or Unite will win a close victory, probably somewhere around 52% or 53%. If I had to put money down, I would have said Unite had an edge, until news of Jared’s SigEp-related arrest came out. Now, plus given that non-System victories occur once in a generation, I’m not so sure which way it’s going to go.
The key is turnout. The higher the turnout, the better for Unite. I say this because while they haven’t been mobilizing Independents (or so-called GDIs) as much as they could, they have done more than Swamp has in mobilizing nontraditional voters.
Treasurer – Runoff
No big shock there. But because Swamp/Unite are headed for a photo-finish at the top of the ticket, I seriously doubt Susan Henriques can use the Progress party and the Alligator to win more than she got last time (17%).
In fact, I suspect that Ryan will win about 45%, Lola 40%, and Susan 15%. In the runoff, all bets are off.
Senate – Swamp Majority
Unless athletes motivate a lot more voters than they have in the past, I think the edge for a Senate majority belongs to Swamp, particularly because they are likely to win the Freshman/Sophomore seats easily.
I think Unite will at least half of Agriculture, both Engineering seats, the LS Slate, and a handful of others, including possible a split in the Graduate slate. If they are start winning more than that (like a sweep of Grad students), then you know they have a decent shot at winning the Presidency.
If I have time, I’ll give a more detailed breakdown of Senate predictions, as far as specific seats go. But until then, those are the broad guesses.